Pension Insurance Modeling System (PIMS)

• Single Employer Contribution Policy Assumption
• Derisking Sensitivity and Economic Downturn Stress Test (FY 2017)
• ME-PIMS Mass Withdrawal Assumptions Memo 
• ME-PIMS Sensitivity Tests: Employment growth, Solvency parameters, Wage Base floor (FY 2014) 
• Projection of Levels of Future Active Participants in Multiemployer Plans (FY 2013)
• Examination of Multiemployer Funding – Rehabilitation Plans (FY 2013)
  • (PDF, rev C-2)
  • (PDF, orig C-2)
• How Do PIMS Results Reflect Varying Rates of Return? (FY 2013)
• A brief history of PIMS (FY 2012)
• PIMS overview (FY 2011)
• The Cost of Pension Insurance, Including Bankruptcy Probability Modeling Methods and Results (2002)
• Models for retirement policy analysis, Chapter 11: PIMS (1999)

Third Party PIMS Users

• Congressional Budget Office
• Society of Actuaries

Publications

• The Rising Tide of Pension Contributions Post-2013: How Much and When?
• Stretching the Corridor: The Effects of Extended Rate Stabilization on Defined Benefit Plan Funding Requirements
• Observations on Input and Output Smoothing: How do they affect the funding of defined benefit plans
• Proposed Pension Funding Stabilization: How Does It Affect the Single-Employer Defined Benefit System?
• The Rising Tide of Pension Contributions Post-2008: How much and when?

Mercer (US) Inc.

PBGC PIMS Peer Review

Buck Global, LLC

PBGC PIMS Peer Review

Review of PBGC’s Multiemployer (ME) PIMS Recoded Model.

Cheiron

MAP-21 Peer Review FY 2019

Modeling of single-employer plan sponsors’ contribution policies and provide analysis on risk transfer activities. Modeling of changes in the number of active participants in multiemployer plans.

Advanced Analytical Consulting Group, Inc.

MAP-21 PIMS Peer Review FY 2019

Multiemployer Active Participants

Single-employer Risk Transfers

Single-employer Contributions

Review of the current modeling of bankruptcy and industry-wide clusters of bankruptcies, as well as contagion effects that might spread through the multiemployer pension system.

Advanced Analytical Consulting Group, Inc.

MAP-21 PIMS Peer Review FY 2018

Bankruptcy Report

Contagion Report

An in-depth, review of PBGC’s SE and ME PIMS. Split into three deliverables over three years:

• FY 2016 and FY 2017 — stochastic modeling process, coding of the models, internal consistency, and ease of implementation of modifications
• FY 2015 — simulation of plan sponsors and plan viability, modeling of sponsor failure risk and PBGC plan administration, PIMS model development, modification, and refinement
• FY 2014 — modeling of macroeconomic variables, PIMS documentation, model output.

Procurement was led by Social Security Administration.

FTI, Inc. (via Social Security Administration)

MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2016)

MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2015)

MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2014)

Review and evaluate the data, assumptions, and methods underlying models of the PBGC’s pension plan insurance programs and related models (PIMS) of pension funding and sustainability. Procurement was led by Social Security Administration.

Retirement Research Consortium, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Brookings Institute

MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2013)

Evaluate the soundness of the economic and statistical theory and actuarial principles that underlie ME-PIMS

Buck Consultants

Review of ME-PIMS (FY 2012)